Prominent elections analyst and statistician Nate Silver said Wednesday that former President Trump is now electorally favored to defeat Vice President Kamala Harris in November by the widest margin in months.
Silver released his latest election forecast, writing on his Substack, “The forecast is still in toss-up range, but Trump’s chances of winning are his highest since July 30,” Silver wrote.
Silver’s nuanced election forecast model shows Trump’s chances of winning the Electoral College have increased from 52.4% to 58.2% since last Thursday. Harris’ odds, meanwhile, have decreased from 47.3% to 41.6%.
He also noted that Harris seemingly didn’t benefit from a Democratic National Convention bounce as much as election models had predicted.
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Former President Trump arrives to speak about national security during a campaign rally at the North Carolina Aviation Museum in Asheboro, North Carolina, on Aug. 21. (Peter Zay/AFP via Getty Images)
“There’s room to debate the convention bounce stuff, but Harris has been getting a lot of mediocre state polls lately,” Silver wrote.
Last week, Silver warned that Harris was poised to be a “slight underdog” in Pennsylvania, whose 19 electoral votes are expected to play a significant part in determining the outcome of the presidential election.
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On Wednesday, the polling guru delivered more bad news for the Harris campaign,writing on X that Michigan could present an “issue” for Harris after weeks of lackluster numbers in the state.
Polling shows Harris holding a slight lead in the battleground state with its 15 electoral votes, a narrow advantage that Silver says should make the Harris campaign nervous.
“National polls and polls of other swing states mostly decent for Harris, but erosion in PA/MI hurts a lot in the model,” Silver posted on X. “In MI, the polling average has fallen from Harris +3.1 pre-DNC to Harris +1.9 now.”
On Substack, he added, “The fact is that most polls we’ve seen over the past week are coming in below our current polling averages for Kamala Harris.”
Addressing voter enthusiasm, Silver said he thinks Harris’ decision to skip over Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as her running mate may hurt her campaign.
“There was a surge of enthusiasm for Harris post-Biden dropout, but that might have happened no matter what. Thought convention speech was good, but bypassing Shapiro beginning to look bad and they haven’t really found a 2nd gear after Hot Brat Summer,” he wrote on X.
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign event in Detroit on Monday. (Emily Elconin/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Last month, Silver predicted that Harris was slightly favored to win the presidential election if it were held then, but cautioned the public against relying too much on polls, citing their record of getting it “wrong” when it comes to former President Trump.
“If you have the electiontomorrow…I think Harris would be a slightfavorite,” Silver said at the time. “She has been ahead in mostrecent polling in the ‘blue wall’states, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin,Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina,Arizona, Nevada all polling inthe margin of error range.”
“People should remember, though,two things,” he added. “One, we have threemore months to go. There will bemore surprises. And two, thepolls have been wrong before. In both the last two general elections they underestimated Trump.”
Yael Halon is a reporter for Fox News Digital. Story tips can be sent to [email protected].
