Former President Trump has the edge in five of the six key battleground states where he was narrowly edged by President Biden four years ago, according to new polls.
The surveys, released Monday by the New York Times, Siena College and the Philadelphia Inquirer, suggest that discontent over the economy and the Israeli-Hamas war in Gaza, and a deterioration in support for Biden by younger, Black and Hispanic voters, “threaten to unravel the president’s Democratic coalition.”
Biden topped Trump by razor-thin margins in the 2020 election in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to win the White House.
However, according to the new polls, with just under six months to go until Election Day, Trump leads Biden among registered voters 49%-42% in Arizona, 49%-39% in Georgia, 49%-42% in Michigan, 50%-38% in Nevada, and edges the president 47%-44% in Pennsylvania, with Biden narrowly on top in Wisconsin 47%-45%.
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Former President Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, speaks at a campaign rally in Wildwood, New Jersey, on Saturday, May 11, 2024. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)
The 2024 rematch between the Democratic president and his Republican predecessor was closer among the narrower pool of likely voters. Trump held the advantage in five states – Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – with Biden edging ahead in Michigan.
The surveys’ findings were similar when third-party and independent candidates were added to the mix, including Democrat turned independent White House contender Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
The longtime environmental activist and high-profile vaccine skeptic, who is the scion of the nation’s most storied political dynasty, was grabbing around 10% support across the six states. The polls suggested Kennedy was drawing roughly equally from both Biden and Trump.
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The new surveys, conducted April 28 through May 9, come as Trump makes history as the first current or former president to stand trial in a criminal case. Additionally, they were also conducted amid a massive ad blitz by the Biden campaign across the key battleground states.
However, “the polls offer little indication that any of these developments have helped Mr. Biden, hurt Mr. Trump or quelled the electorate’s discontent,” the New York Times writes.
President Biden arrives at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport on Friday, May 10, 2024, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
The surveys spotlight that voters are dissatisfied and itching for change. Nearly seven in 10 said that the nation’s political and economic systems need major changes, or should be entirely torn down.
Nearly three-quarters said they believe Trump will bring major changes if he wins in November, compared to less than a quarter saying the same thing about the president.
The polls also indicate Trump is making gains with voters who overwhelmingly supported Biden four years ago.
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Trump and Biden are roughly tied among voters 18–29 years old and Hispanic voters. The surveys also suggest the former president is grabbing over 20% of Black voters’ support, which, if it stands on Election Day, would be the highest level of backing by Black voters for a GOP presidential nominee in generations.
The polls suggest the economy continues to pull Biden down. Even though jobs are soaring and the stock market is booming, inflation remains a major issue for voters, even though it has cooled over the past year. More than half of those surveyed said they believe the economy is still “poor.”
President Biden and former President Trump (AP Photo/Alex Brandon | Curtis Means/DailyMail.com via AP, Pool)
However, the president remains in contention, as the surveys point to Biden holding ground with older voters and White voters, whom the polls highlight “are much less likely to demand fundamental changes to the system and far likelier to say that democracy is the most important issue for their vote.”
Abortion remains a potential problem for Trump. Nearly two-thirds of voters questioned in polls say that abortion should always or mostly be legal, including 44% of those supporting the former president.
Over 4,000 voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were questioned in the polls, with an overall sampling error for all respondents of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points. The margin of error in the six states ranged from plus or minus 3.6 to 4.6 percentage points.
Paul Steinhauser is a politics reporter based in New Hampshire.
