Vice President Kamala Harris edges former President Trump in a head-to-head matchup, as more voters see Harris as the candidate who will help the middle class, and Hispanics and independents swing in her direction.
The new Fox News national survey finds a 3 percentage-point shift among registered voters in the 2024 presidential contest since mid-August. Trump had a 1-point advantage last month, while Harris is ahead by 2 points today: 50%-48%. For reference, in July, Trump was ahead by 1 point over President Biden. Each of those differences falls within the margin of error.
This marks the first time Harris has hit 50% support, and the trial ballot result is identical among both registered and likely voters. That’s unsurprising given most Americans who are willing to spend time answering a political survey are also probably going to vote.
Of course, presidential elections are decided by electoral votes from the states, not national vote totals. Hillary Clinton had a 2-point popular vote margin over Trump in 2016 but lost the Electoral College 304-227, while Biden’s 4-point popular vote win in 2020 translated to a 306-232 Electoral College victory.
Since the August survey, many events have occurred that could affect voter opinion: the Democratic National Convention was held; Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump; former Vice President Dick Cheney and former Congresswoman Liz Cheney endorsed Harris; and the candidates faced off in a debate. A second assassination attempt on Trump happened about three-quarters of the way into the new survey.
The biggest change since last month is that independents and Hispanics have swung Harris’ way.Hispanics favored Trump by 6 points in August, but they go for Harris by 12 points today. Independents went for Trump by 8 points last month, but now prefer Harris by 12. It is important to remember that estimates among small subgroups are more volatile and tend to swing more than others, and that applies here.
FOX NEWS POLL: HARRIS CLOSES GAP WITH TRUMP IN SUN BELT STATES
Trump gets his best numbers from voters who regularly attend worship services, non-college White men, rural voters and men.
Harris’ strongest backing comes from Black voters, urban voters, those under age 30, voters 65 and over, college graduates and women. She’s narrowly ahead in union households, a group that Biden won by low double-digits. Her numbers also still trail his 2020 pre-election numbers a bit among Blacks and young voters. Democrats are optimistic these groups will ultimately back Harris, but that is certainly an unknown.
Harris holds onto almost all of 2020 Biden voters (93%) and Trump keeps nearly all his 2020 backers as well (94%). Among 2020 non-voters, Harris is up by 3 points, 51%-48%.
When looking at results only among counties where the 2020 presidential vote was close (Biden and Trump within 10 points), Trump is ahead 50%-48% — and he holds the same edge across the combined battleground states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin).
“Our best estimates are that if Trump is within 2 points of Harris nationally then he will likely win in the Electoral College,” says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts Fox News surveys with Democrat Chris Anderson. “These data showing a Trump edge in the key counties and battleground states suggest that’s probably right.”
Overall, 72% of Trump supporters say they like his policies and record and another 8% like his character, but 19% say they simply dislike Harris. Views are more mixed among those backing Harris, as 42% like her policies and record, 24% like her character, while 33% say they are backing her because they dislike Trump.
Roughly 7 in 10 Harris and Trump supporters say they are “extremely” motivated to vote this year.
And while most of each candidate’s supporters feel certain of their vote choice, about 1 voter in 10 is moveable.
Most Republicans (75%) consider themselves a supporter of MAGA, but among non-MAGA Republicans one in five backs Harris over Trump (21%).
More voters think Harris (53%) has the temperament to serve effectively as president than Trump (47%). For Trump, that is a 10-point improvement since 2017 when 37% said he had the right temperament (2017 is the most recent time the question was asked about him, and this is the first time it was asked of Harris).
Harris is seen as the candidate who will help the middle class by a 9-point margin and protect personal rights and freedoms by 6 points. She also bests Trump by 5 points on “fighting for people like you” and “uniting the country.” There’s little difference on who will make the country safe (Trump +3 points), protect free speech (Harris +1), and bring needed change (Harris +3).
Over half of Hispanic voters trust Harris over Trump on each of those measures, hitting nearly 6 in 10 on helping the middle class and fighting for people like you. She also does better among independents on each, except making the country safe, where he has a 3-point edge.
“Harris’ advantage over Trump on a variety of personal traits is clearly helping her,” says Shaw. “It’s a big deal that she’s been able to fight to a draw on protecting free speech despite aggressive Republican efforts to highlight the Biden administration’s censorship of right-leaning views on social media.”
More than 8 in 10 voters want the next president to make significant changes in the country, including one-third who are looking for “drastic” change. Trump is preferred by a wide 31-point margin among those wanting drastic change, but that narrows to just 4 points among the larger group looking for either major or drastic change.
When asked who they trust to handle top issues, voters favor Trump on immigration (+10), the Israel-Hamas war (+7) and the economy (+5). Since being first asked this question in March, his advantage on the economy is down 10 points compared to his 15-point lead over Biden and down 8 points on immigration (was +18).
Harris is favored to handle election integrity (+7), health care (+11), abortion (+16), transgender issues (+16) and climate change (+17). It’s noteworthy neither candidate has a real advantage on guns or taxes, both traditionally GOP issues.
As has been the case all year, the economy is the most important issue for voters this election. Thirty-nine percent say it is the priority, while fewer than half that number say immigration (16%) and abortion (15%).All other issues receive 7% or less.
Twice as many Republicans (50%) as Democrats (25%) say the economy is the top issue and 10 times as many Republicans say immigration (30% vs. 3% Democrats). Democrats are 5 times as likely to say abortion is the most important issue (27% vs. 5% GOP).
Some 70% of voters rate economic conditions negatively. That’s an improvement from a record 84% who felt that way in July 2022 (a record Biden) and puts things on par with ratings early in Biden’s presidency.
Trump’s advantage on the economy comes from voters remembering his presidency as a sunnier time. By a 17-point margin, more say the Trump administration’s policies helped rather than hurt them. When thinking about Biden, voters are more likely to say his administration’s policies are hurting them by a 24-point margin.
Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, have better personal favorability ratings than Trump and his vice-presidential pick, Ohio Sen. JD Vance. Walz is the only one voters view more favorably than unfavorably (+3 points). While Harris’ ratings are net negative by 2 points, her 49% favorable is her highest in over three years. Trump is underwater by 8 points and Vance by 12.About 1 in 6 are unfamiliar with Walz and Vance. Biden’s rating is negative by 17 points, 41% favorable vs. 58% unfavorable.
While Democrats and Republicans have largely positive views of their candidates, each individual tested is underwater when it comes to the small subgroup of independents.
A larger share sees Harris (55%) as being willing to say anything to get elected than feel the same about Trump (48%). Only 43% think Harris says what she believes vs. 51% for Trump.
Abortion is the single most important issue motivating Harris supporters to vote (38%), closely followed by “stopping the other side from winning” (36%).For Trump supporters, immigration (49%) and high prices (49%) tie as the single most important factor motivating them.
FOX NEWS POLL: 87% CONSIDER SITUATION AT SOUTHERN BORDER A PROBLEM
Overall, voters say the thing most likely to get them to turn out and vote is high prices (39%), followed by immigration (32%), stopping the other side from winning (29%), abortion (27%), violent crime (26%), the race of the candidates (9%) and the gender of the candidates (7%).
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Whoever wins will be on TV a lot for the next four years. When asked what they do when Harris comes on TV, voters say, by a 50%-48% margin, they turn up the volume rather than change the channel. For Trump, 48% turn it up and 49% change the channel — almost identical to views in 2016 (46% turn up, 47% change). At that time, 41% said they would turn up the volume for Hillary Clinton and 52% said change the channel.
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Conducted Sept. 13-16 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News survey includes interviews with a sample of 1,102 registered voters randomly selected from a national voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (128) and cellphones (699) or completed the survey online after receiving a text (275). Results based on both the full registered voter sample and the subsample of 876 likely voters have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. Sampling error associated with results among subgroup is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population. Sources for developing weight targets include the American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data.
Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.
As head of the polling unit, Dana Blanton runs the Fox News Poll and oversees the Fox News Voter Analysis election survey.
